The 2013 German Federal Elections: Key Determinants and Implications for German-Turkish Relations

Executive Summary

The 2013 federal elections have been the most unpredictable elections in Germany's recent political history. Although Chancellor Angela Merkel's victory did not come as a surprise, the elections certainly had some unanticipated outcomes: the liberal Free Democratic Party was obliterated; the Alternative for Germany, known for its Euroscepticism, garnered 4.7 percent of the vote—just shy of breaking the 5 percent threshold—and a long-standing ambiguity loomed over the potential coalition partner of the German Christian Democrats.

The election results confirmed Chancellor Merkel's success in delivering stability to Germany and safeguarding the German interests in view of the Euro crisis. Furthermore, the outcome has also revealed the Social Democratic Party of Germany's and the Green Party's major problems with public image, leadership, and handling of key policy areas.

In view of the grand coalition, major policy changes regarding Turkey are not expected. German-Turkish economic and foreign policy-related dialogue is likely to remain strong and open to improvement, taking into consideration changing global and regional realities. However, some interparty debates and limited policy changes related to hot topics such as double citizenship, visa liberalization, and Turkey's accession to the EU can be predicted.