From Benign Donor To Self-Assured Security Provider: Turkey's Policy In Somalia

Introduction 

The opening of a Turkish military training base in Mogadishu by Somali Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khyare and the Turkish Chief of Staff General Hulusi Akar on September 30, 2017 sparked discussions as to whether Turkey is now set to play a more ambitious role in Somalia. Being its largest forward base in the world, with a cost of 50 million USD and the initial goal of training more than 10,000 soldiers, the base is a solid indication of Turkey’s enduring support for its lead partner in the Horn of Africa. It is also a step forward from the benign donor role that Turkey has been capitalizing on in Somalia into a self-assured security provider role. This policy brief aims to investigate the reasons for and implications of Turkey’s military base in Somalia. What are the implications of this base for Turkey, Somalia, and the regional geopolitics in the Horn of Africa? Could its new security involvement damage the benign role Turkey has been carefully crafting in the country? This policy brief aims to answer these questions by first offering background on Turkey’s engagement in Somalia, then focusing on the surging rivalry in the region, and finally by investigating the possible implications of Turkey’s base.

Concluding Remarks 

Turkey has so far enjoyed a benign donor role in Somalia, which has generally been appreciated in the country. Although Turkey’s security provider role brings with it both risks and opportunities, it is certainly a solid indication of its commitment to Somalia and its enthusiasm to assume a greater role in the country. While the base has already been a target for attacks, the fact that Erdoğan’s name was chanted by thousands during a rally in Mogadishu organized to denounce Al Shabaab is an indication that Turkey’s policy already enjoys a certain level of public recognition. However, a critical dilemma remains. While providing security is necessary to institute order and peace in post-conflict countries like Somalia, the means to achieve it could also trigger further destabilization. It is important to ensure institutionalization within the Somali state while strengthening security forces in order to prevent the use of force for political gains. It is also important to be careful about the rising rivalry between regional powers in the Horn and prevent the area from becoming a zone of proxy wars. On the optimistic side, this rivalry could also benefit the region in terms of turning into a center of attraction. In this regard, coordination between different stakeholders, a comprehensive risk analysis, and a prudent approach could enable Turkey to secure a longterm presence in Somalia both as a benign donor and a self-assured security provider.