Dispatch from Warsaw: Transatlantic Security after Ankara

Introduction

A new wave of unity has swept the transatlantic alliance since this summer’s NATO Summit in Ankara, in which all 32 Allies reaffirmed their commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Building on the announcements in the Turkish capital in July, unity has been the strongest message coming from the Alliance over the past three months. This sense of cohesion was also reflected in this year’s theme for the Warsaw Security Forum (WSF): #UnitedWeStand. While the two-day conference touched on a myriad of themes that are common in today’s security debates—from cyber and energy security to defense financing and industrialization—a few key messages stood out as crucial indicators of how transatlantic security is being shaped today.

The highlight of this year’s Forum was Supreme Allied Command Europe (SACEUR) Alexus Grynkewich’s “Theory of Victory” speech, in which he outlined NATO’s strategy to block, blunt, and then break enemy forces and their supporting systems in case of an attack. Although this is the first time that NATO has publicly shared this theory, the strategy is not entirely revolutionary: NATO has been a defensive alliance since its founding and, therefore, such a defensive strategy is in some sense business as usual. Rather, the novelty in SACEUR’s speech is the message it sends about NATO’s unity, its readiness, and its willingness to fight back if faced with a conventional attack. Such a clear announcement of this theory is most importantly a warning to adversaries and reinforces the message of unity that the Alliance must continue to project amid a period in which the Euro-Atlantic Alliance is no longer at peace.

Another key takeaway is that energy and critical infrastructure are more vital than ever to the defense of Allied nations. Since the advent of the U.S.–Iran war in February 2026, the global scramble to seek new energy routes and secure those in use has redefined the global economy and trade. This, of course, is compounded by Europe’s decoupling from Russian oil and gas after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years prior and continued hybrid attacks on critical infrastructure across Allied territory, such as the Russian drone attack on Leipzig airport in August.