EU-Turkey Relations in Light of HUngry's EU Presidency

Executive Summary 

As Hungary assumed the Presidency of the Council of the European Union this month, Budapest’s friendly relations with Ankara may provide renewed opportunities to advance EU-Turkey relations. Within the bloc, Hungary supports the integration of countries critical of the West, such as Turkey. At the same time, Turkey, whose accession talks the EU suspended in 2018, will use this opportunity to keep itself on the EU’s agenda via Hungary. Hungary will try to achieve progress on files important for Turkey, such as upgrading the Customs Union and taking steps towards visa liberalization. However, Turkey’s lack of progress with accession criteria and Hungary’s pariah status in the EU due to its controversial stances on the Russia-Ukraine war and rule of law issues limit the chances of any success. This analysis, based on interviews with diplomats in Turkey and Hungary, argues that while Hungary’s EU Presidency may help keep Turkey on the agenda in Brussels, it may fall short of facilitating strategic files.

Conclusion 

Hungary and Turkey are both isolated in the Western alliance system. Thus, they cooperate to extract benefits when their interests do not collide, which is not different in the case of EU-Turkey relations. Since the reputation of both capitals in Brussels has already eroded, it comes at no cost for the incumbents to cooperate on specific themes. On the one hand, if Hungary can increase Turkey’s visibility via its EU Presidency, this will be considered a huge success. On the other, if it fails, it will not damage Turkey’s progress because it has already reached a point of no return. Additionally, Hungary’s Prime Minister Orbán expects to magnify his own influence by supporting Turkey. By doing so, he postures as the link between the world of anti-Western, non-EU member autocrats and the EU. Although the benefits of this strategy for Hungary remain to be seen, it elevates Orbán’s role as an influential dealmaker in international politics.