The EU's Energy Diversification Framework: Can the Role of the Southern Gas Corridor Expand?

Executive Summary

The European Union’s recent efforts to diversify its energy supplies away from Russian gas include increasing its reliance on both renewables and alternative natural gas suppliers. This analysis asks a central question in this regard: Can the role of the Southern Gas Corridor in the European Union’s energy diversification strategy expand? This analysis highlights the current infrastructural, temporal, and financial barriers to advancing the role of the Southern Gas Corridor. In light of these barriers, the analysis assesses whether expanding the region’s renewable energy capacity can become a viable alternative to expanding the EU’s natural gas network.

The EU’s Energy Diversification Strategy: Still Not Fully Diversified

The changing dynamics of the international gas trade are reflected in the European Union’s (EU) gas markets. Before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, Russia was the EU’s primary natural gas supplier. Russian gas constituted 40% of the EU’s total gas imports, which amounted to 150 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually.1 In 2025, the EU reduced Russian gas imports to roughly 35 bcm, representing nearly 13% of its overall gas imports.2 Although the reduction is significant, the numbers remain high. Ten member states continue to rely on Russian gas imports,3 with Hungary, Slovakia, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Spain as the largest importers.

Barriers to Further Natural Gas Transmission: An Opportunity to Accelerate Renewable Energy Adoption?

Recently, the outbreak of the war in Iran, resulting in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a pause in Qatar’s sea-based LNG exports as of early March 2026, has caused major spikes in both natural gas and petroleum prices.23 Historically, the price of fossil fuel-based energy resources, including natural gas and petroleum, is highly dependent on geopolitical reconfigurations. Back in the late 2000s, disputes over gas pricing between Ukraine and Russia led to a halt in Russian gas deliveries to Europe, resulting in upward pressure on prices. In January 2009, Russian gas deliveries to Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, and Croatia were suspended at a time when Russia accounted for over one-third of the EU’s gas demand.24 The war in Ukraine had a similar impact on the European gas market in 2022, significantly affecting energy prices across the continent.