German Elections: Implications for German Politics, Climate Policy, Foreign Policy, and Germany’s Relations with the EU and Turkey

German Elections: Implications for German Politics, Climate Policy, Foreign Policy, and Germany’s Relations with the EU and Turkey

On February 23, 2025, Germany held a historic snap election that marked a critical turning point for its domestic politics, foreign and security policy, climate agenda, and role within the European Union. The election results revealed increasing political fragmentation, polarization, and voter dissatisfaction, alongside the significant rise of populist forces, reshaping Germany’s political landscape and constraining future governance. This analysis examines the implications of the elections across four interlinked dimensions: domestic political dynamics and coalition prospects, Germany’s foreign and security policy and leadership role in the EU, the future trajectory of EU enlargement and EU–Turkey relations, and climate policy amid growing public backlash against the green transition. It argues that while a CDU/CSU–SPD coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz may restore governmental stability and revive German leadership in Europe, it will face substantial challenges in balancing domestic political constraints with the need for decisive action on European defense, enlargement, relations with Turkey, and climate transformation. The study highlights the increasing transactionalism in German foreign policy, particularly toward Turkey, and underscores the risk of undermining long-term normative objectives. Ultimately, the paper contends that Germany’s ability to integrate climate policy into a broader industrial and social strategy, reassert credible EU leadership, and move beyond purely interest-driven external relations will be decisive for its future role in Europe and the evolving multipolar international order.