Integration of Renewable Energy into the Turkish Electricity System, April 2022

Executive Summary

Introduction 

The Turkish power system has undergone a remarkable transformation over the past two decades. To meet rapidly rising demand driven by a growing economy and population, Turkey began restructuring its power system in 2001. The liberalization and privatization of the electricity market allowed for private entities to participate in power generation, distribution and supply with the long-term view towards promoting energy security through increasing domestic production capacity and reducing overall power system costs. Initially, these reforms resulted in significant investments into conventional fossil-fuels. Heavily dependent on imports for natural gas, a mainstay fuel in Turkey’s energy mix since the late 1980s, the country has sought to reduce its vulnerability to imported gas by promoting the exploitation of domestic resources and technologies. This drove the expansion of local resources for power generation, including both lignite and renewables, as well as the decision to begin construction on the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, the first in Turkey, with the first unit scheduled for commissioning as early as 2023.

Conclusions

This report presents the results and key outcomes of the updated market and network simulation study for the Turkish grid in 2030. Three scenarios are addressed: 1) Business as Usual (BAU); 2) Accelerated RES (ARES); and 3) Coal Phase Down (CPD). For each scenario, market and network simulations are performed for the target year 2030 in hourly resolution. In addition, demand increase, the number of nuclear units in 2030, different types and levels of flexibility options, and carbon phase-out pathways are considered in the sensitivity analyses. Sensitivity analyses in the BAU scenario are designed as stress tests under lowdemand conditions that correspond to challenging conditions as identified by TEIAS, particularly at minimum loading hours when RES generation is the highest and RES generation curtailment could be indispensable depending on the flexibility level of the grid. The logic behind the sensitivity analyses in the ARES scenario, which has more RES capacity compared to BAU, is to gradually increase the flexibility of the grid. These analyses aim to see how the increase in grid flexibility affects redispatch and RES curtailment requirements. Finally, sensitivity analyses in the CPD scenario represent two different pathways (i.e., the CPD Path 1 and CPD Path 2) for coal phase down under different levels of gas power plant and RES capacity.