Made in the EU: Risks for the Turkish-European Automotive Supply Chain

The European Commission’s Automotive Package 

The share of electric vehicles (EVs) in global automotive markets has been on the rise. In 2024, EVs accounted for 20% of new automobile sales worldwide. Similarly, the share of EVs in global automobile exports rose more than 20% compared to the previous year.1 Today, China dominates the global EV market. At the country level, the Chinese market has the largest EV demand worldwide: of the 17 million EVs purchased globally in 2024, 11 million were purchased in China. Most notably, as Figure 1 shows, Chinese EV producers have dominated the Chinese market, with Geely Geome Xingyuan, BYD Seagull, and Wuling Mini standing out as the leading models (see Figure 1).  China is also the world’s largest EV exporter, accounting for 40% of global EV exports with 1.25 million EV sales abroad.3 For the first time, BYD’s EV sales exceeded Tesla’s in 2025.4 In close tandem with this, the market share of Chinese EV producers in Western Europe rose from 3.8% in 2021 to 9.6% in 2024.5 Such growth was achieved despite the fact that the purchase of Chinese EVs in the United States is extraordinarily difficult due to national security restrictions and high tariffs.6 With the increasing competitiveness of Chinese EVs in the global automotive market, the United States has taken an increasingly protectionist turn during the second Trump administration. Currently, the United States imposes a 15% tariff on EU-based car exports, which was 2.5% before Trump’s inauguration in January 2025. This is crucial for the EU, since the United States is its top automotive export destination, accounting for nearly 40% of its total exports.

The Risks of the Automotive Package for the Turkish-European Automotive Supply Chain

The automotive industry occupies a central place in the Turkish economy. In 2024, it recorded exports of USD 37.2 billion, the largest among all sectors (see Figure 3), which corresponded to 17% of Türkiye’s total exports. More recently, the automotive industry in Türkiye has been close to setting a new annual record. Over the January 2025–November 2025 period, automotive exports reached USD 37.13 billion, with 61% from automobile production and the rest from auxiliary industries