Multilateralism Matters: Toward a Rules-Based Turkey-EU Relationship

Executive Summary 

This policy brief examines the current stalemate in the Turkey-EU relationship and proposes that the relationship should be analyzed through a global lens, not a bilateral one. It examines the paradigmatic shift toward multilateralism globally and in Europe and shows how multilateralism matters for the EU against the current global turbulence. In fostering multilateralism in this context, the EU needs to be more inclusive and should further cultivate its partnerships with outside actors such as Turkey. Based on this analysis, the policy brief proposes that the EU’s relationship with Turkey should not only be based on transactionalism but should also include rules-based frameworks such as the upgrading of the Customs Union. The upgrading of the Customs Union is important not only in revitalizing the economic dimension of the Turkey-EU relationship but also for the inclusion of Turkey in the rules-based multilateral system. The paper concludes by examining the future of the relationship and proposing policy recommendations. This policy brief is a revised version of the author’s presentation at a roundtable discussion in the conference “Britain, Turkey and the EU: Mapping the Future of Differentiated Integration,” organized by the Centre for European Reform, Istanbul Policy Center (IPC), and the Economic Development Foundation (İKV) in London.

Introduction 

The international system is experiencing a period of turbulent change, with two paradigmatic shifts that affect all actors and their relationships: the rise of a multipolar system and the proliferation of populist/ authoritarian tendencies. As a result of such shifts, it is no longer meaningful to separate the internal from the international arena as the two spheres closely interact with each other. In this turbulent context, there are definite links between the rise of the multipolar system and the proliferation of populist/authoritarian tendencies as reflected in the widespread analysis on the “illiberal turn” and diffusion of power in the international system.1 This policy brief will focus on the diffusion of power and turbulent change in the international system and its impact on the long-standing EU-Turkey relationship. It will analyze the recent rise of populist/ authoritarian tendencies and how they interact with the turbulent change in the international system. In this context, an analysis of global change is crucial in contextualizing the EU-Turkey relationship. As both the EU and Turkey are affected by these global paradigmatic shifts, it is no longer useful to understand only the bilateral relationship but rather how the bilateral relationship fits into the global context.

Conclusion: Policy Implications 

In the context of global paradigmatic shifts, this policy brief proposed that the Turkey-EU relationship needs to be contextualized within the present international system, not within a bilateral context. With global changes in the diffusion of power and the rise of new actors, the international system is evolving toward a multipolar framework. In this turbulent environment, unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral orientations compete as multilateralism becomes increasingly more fragile. More than any other actor, multilateralism matters highly for the EU as underlined in this policy brief. In fostering a multilateral system, the EU has emphasized the need to create partnerships and coalitions with other actors.