Turkey, Russia and the West: Reassessing Persistent Volatility, Asymmetric Interdependence, and the Syria Conflict

Executive Summary

The humanitarian crisis and escalating bloodshed in Syria’s Idlib province have brought Turkey-Russia relations to a fraught and volatile moment. The crisis is inextricably linked to numerous other foreign policy challenges facing Turkey, from migration cooperation to relations with NATO, and thus urgently demands a comprehensive reassessment of Turkey-Russia relations and their implications for Turkey’s Western allies. To this end, the Istanbul Policy Center (IPC) and Economic Development Foundation (İKV) convened a group of leading experts for an international confer - ence in February 2020 on “Turkey, Russia, and the West.” This report synthesizes insights from the conference participants on four issues of crucial importance. First, our analysis identifies why increased coop - eration between Turkey and Russia has paradoxically coexisted with heightened instability in bilateral rela - tions. We argue that three factors—relations with the West, personalized decision-making processes, and deepening mutual engagement—are fundamental to understanding why the Turkey-Russia relationship has been so volatile and yet so resilient in recent years. Second, we scrutinize the dynamics of asymmetric interdependence in bilateral relations and highlight that these asymmetries derive not only from economic and energy ties but also from political imbalances. We argue that under such conditions, “compartmental - izing” disagreements is not a sustainable long-term strategy. Third, we analyze in-depth the thorniest issue facing Turkey-Russia relations today: the Syrian civil war and ongoing Idlib crisis. Taking a step back from day-to-day developments, we diagnose the key underlying challenges that confront Turkey both diplo - matically and tactically. Finally, we propose actionable policy recommendations. Turkey and Russia, on the one hand, should seek to clarify their policy goals in Syria, leverage international support for humanitarian objectives there, and strengthen the capacity of jour - nalists, policymakers, and researchers to understand the other side. Turkey’s Western allies, in turn, should become more accepting of Turkey-Russia cooperation, consider invoking the Berlin Plus agreement in Idlib, and seize the chance to revitalize U.S.-Turkey relations.