Turkey's Decarbonization Roadmap - Timeline and Geography of Transformation (2020-2050)

INTRODUCTION 

Turkey, within the framework of the Paris Agreement, submitted its Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in April 2023. In this commitment, Turkey pledged to reduce its total greenhouse gas emissions by 41% by 2030 compared to the reference scenario and to reach a peak in 2038 before subsequently reducing emissions. According to this, Turkey’s greenhouse gas emissions, which were 524 million tons in 2020, will increase by 32% to reach 693 million tons by 2030. According to the Paris Agreement, national contributions need to be updated every five years with increased targets. Accordingly, Turkey is obligated to submit its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by the end of 2025, with the target year set for 2035. This submission is required to take place before COP30, which will be held in Brazil. Given that the current updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) specifies that total greenhouse gas emissions will peak after 2035 and then begin to decrease, it can be inferred that Turkey is likely to plan a reduction target in its next NDC, rather than an increase over the reference scenario.