What’s Up with U.S.- Turkey Relations? Between International Turmoil and Trump 2.0

Executive Summary

The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has raised cautious optimism in Turkey. On the one hand, his good ties with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and their shared transactional approach to international politics may foster ad hoc agreements on key issues. Compared to outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden’s more rigid and distrustful engagement, this could facilitate a fresh start between Ankara and Washington. However, structural challenges—including divergent priorities in Syria, tensions over the S-400 missile system, and Turkey’s delicate balancing act between NATO, Russia, and emerging powers—create significant obstacles to fully restoring mutual trust. This analysis examines the evolving dynamics of U.S.-Turkey relations, exploring how their shared interests hold both risks and opportunities amid complex global challenges.