Between Appeasement and Rivalry: Turkey and Russia and their Neighborhoods

Executive Summary

This analysis examines the complex relationship between Turkey and Russia, shaped by a combination of pragmatic cooperation and geopolitical competition. Although Turkey is often viewed as an accommodating actor toward Russia due to its avoidance of direct confrontation in the post-Soviet space and its decision not to join Western sanctions during the Ukraine crisis, it has pursued a more assertive approach in regions such as the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean.

However, Russia’s growing influence in these regions—particularly through its military presence in Syria and its relations with actors such as Iran and Cyprus—has weakened Turkey’s strategic position. The study argues that Turkey has failed to fully recognize the interconnected nature of Russian foreign policy, especially the strategic links Russia establishes between the Black Sea and the Middle East, limiting Turkey’s ability to effectively balance Moscow’s expanding influence.

The analysis further emphasizes that Russia considers the post-Soviet region its primary sphere of influence and uses its presence in the Middle East as a means of advancing broader geopolitical negotiations with the West. The most visible area of Turkish-Russian rivalry is Syria, where Turkey supports opposition groups while Russia remains the main military backer of the Assad regime.

In conclusion, the study argues that Turkey’s strategy of maintaining cooperation with Russia in one region while competing with it in another is insufficient. To counter Russia’s expanding influence, Turkey should pursue closer strategic alignment with NATO and the European Union, particularly in the Black Sea region, in order to strengthen its geopolitical position.