Dealing With Turkey After Ukraine: Why the EU Should Let the Enlargement Approach Go

Executive Summary

This commentary argues that the European Union's traditional enlargement policy has become increasingly inadequate in addressing the new geopolitical realities emerging after the Ukraine crisis of 2013–2014. The EU's reliance on conditionality—exchanging domestic reforms for progress in accession negotiations—was successful during the Eastern enlargement due to credible membership prospects and strong domestic socialization toward Euro-Atlantic integration. However, this model no longer functions effectively in the current global environment, where competing geopolitical actors such as Russia offer alternative integration projects, including the Eurasian Customs Union. In this transformed context, enlargement has lost its monopoly as the EU's primary instrument of transformative power.

The article contends that EU–Turkey relations should be fundamentally reconsidered. Turkey's accession process has stagnated since 2008, and both political dynamics within Turkey and enlargement fatigue within the EU have undermined the credibility of full membership. Given shared strategic challenges—particularly the conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, refugee flows, energy security concerns, and Russian expansionism—the author proposes replacing the accession-centered framework with a "functional Union" based on differential integration. Instead of sequential adoption of the acquis, the EU and Turkey should pursue deep cooperation in specific policy areas of mutual interest, such as migration management, regional security, energy routes, trade, and responses to Russian sanctions. This more flexible and equal partnership model would strengthen geopolitical coordination while maintaining EU normative commitments, offering a pragmatic alternative to a stalled enlargement process.