Decarbonization Pathway for Turkey: Sectoral Cost-Benefit Analysis (2020-2030)

Executive Summary 

The Turkish Parliament ratified the Paris Agreement on October 6, 2021 by unanimously passing the Law on the Approval of the Ratification of the Paris Agreement, following Turkey’s announcement at the United Nations General Assembly on September 21, 2021 that it would be party to the agreement and would accept the 2053 net-zero target. From this date on, Turkey’s pathway to achieve its 2053 net-zero target has become a key topic of discussion in climate policy design. The report “Turkey’s Decarbonization Pathway: Net Zero in 2050” published in October 2021 brought together the results of research initiated by Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University in 2020.1 The research strived to prepare a roadmap that would reveal the transformations that the Turkish economy should undergo if it were to ratify the Paris Agreement and accept the 2050 net-zero target. The report “Turkey’s Decarbonization Pathway: Sectoral Cost-Benefit Analysis” builds on the previous report’s Baseline Scenario and NetZero Scenario’s 2020–2030 assumptions and sets out to analyze and discuss the costs and benefits that would arise if the Net-Zero Scenario were to be realized during this period. This study features cost-benefit analyses for sectors that were discussed in detail in the report “Turkey’s Decarbonization Pathway: Net Zero in 2050” (Electricity, Transportation, Buildings, Industry and Other Manufacturing The costbenefit analysis for each sector uses Turkey’s 2018 economic indicators and emissions and covers the Baseline Scenario and Net-Zero Scenario from the report “Turkey’s Decarbonization Pathway:Net Zero in 2050” for the 2020–2030 period. The study addresses energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions from the electricity power sector, transportation sector, and buildings and CO2 emissions from industrial processes. The CO2 emissions 2020–2030 pathway under the Net-Zero Scenario requires a transition that is different than the Baseline Scenario, and this study calculates the components of the transition under the Net-Zero Scenario and analyzes the additional benefits. The model that constitutes the basis of this research uses the modeling framework from the report “Turkey’s Decarbonization Pathway: Net Zero in 2050” for the 2020–2030 period. Furthermore, while addressing the electricity sector, which is responsible for the majority of Turkey’s national CO2 emissions, this research uses the analytical framework from the report “Turkey’s Decarbonization Pathway: Net Zero in 2050” and takes it further by modeling power generation and the power grid separately. The study’s models and outcomes are illustrated in Figure 1.