Global Turkey in Europe III: Democracy, Trade, and the Kurdish Issue in Türkiye-EU Relations

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of Turkey’s foreign policy, domestic politics, Kurdish issue, and economic trajectory in the post-2013 context. It argues that Turkey’s relationship with Russia is shaped by pragmatic cooperation constrained by geopolitical rivalry, historical legacies, and shifting energy dependencies, while its alignment with the West remains decisive, especially amid tensions between Russia and Western actors. At the same time, the European Union’s transformative influence over Turkey has weakened, making accession negotiations less relevant and calling for a reassessment of EU–Turkey relations. Regionally, Turkey’s policies in Syria and the post-Soviet space reveal competing strategic priorities, particularly regarding security, Kurdish dynamics, and relations with neighboring powers.

Domestically, the study highlights Turkey’s drift toward majoritarian and potentially authoritarian governance under the AKP, marked by weakening rule of law, increased political polarization, and challenges to judicial independence and freedom of expression. The Kurdish peace process is identified as both a critical opportunity and a fragile process shaped by internal divisions and regional conflicts. Economically, while Turkey has experienced significant growth since the early 2000s, structural weaknesses—such as the current account deficit and middle-income trap—persist. The study concludes that Turkey’s future stability and development depend on institutional reforms, renewed external economic anchors (such as deeper EU integration or trade agreements), and a recalibration of both its foreign and domestic policies.