Opportunities on Conflict Resolution and Democracy after July 15

Executive Summary

Turkey has recently faced numerous challenges. Increased polarization within the country and the surrounding insecure environment have exacerbated existing conflicts. The coup attempt of July 15, 2016, created a fertile ground for the development of conflicts, plunging Turkey into an environment of increasing uncertainty. This report is the final product of the "Post-Coup Attempt Conflict Resolution and Democracy Opportunities" project, conducted by the Istanbul Policy Center between September 2016 and May 2017. The project aimed to examine the changing conditions in the post-coup attempt period, identify key conflict issues, and offer policy recommendations for a stronger and more harmonious Turkey. The most important lessons learned from the coup attempt were the serious damage to the perception and discourse of a strong state, and the confirmation of the importance of secularism and meritocracy in strengthening institutions. Therefore, the study argues that weak social ties and institutional instability are the most significant causes of conflict and pave the way for further coup attempts. This study focuses on polarization and the Kurdish issue as the two most likely areas of conflict in Turkey. Indeed, these issues have long constituted the cornerstones of conflict and instability. In fact, the results of the constitutional referendum held on April 16, 2016, revealed that resolving these two issues would be the most important steps towards a more stable Turkey. Every step taken to strengthen dialogue, democratization, and a culture of coexistence will be a primary requirement for establishing peace in Turkey. The referendum result confirmed once again that there is a strong desire for democratization and that this atmosphere should be used to strengthen the culture of coexistence. This study, based on the analysis of extensive primary data obtained from five workshops with approximately 100 people from the bureaucracy, academia, civil society, business circles, and media in Istanbul, Ankara, and Diyarbakır, and face-to-face interviews with 22 people, has identified inclusivity, empathy, representation, a lack of a strong civil society, and the use of polarizing language in political debates as the biggest obstacles to conflict resolution and democracy in Turkey. Furthermore, all stakeholders have stated that dialogue and negotiation will strengthen peace, democracy, and stability in our country. The project is built on five pillars that constitute the main areas of conflict in Turkey. These include “polarization,” “the ethnic dimension of the Kurdish issue,” “reform and institutional structuring,” “the state, the army, and foreign policy,” and “economic reform and inclusive growth.” While these issues appear quite different, they are closely interconnected and must be addressed equally in order to offer comprehensive and sustainable solutions to the problems. Polarization overshadows the possibilities for intergroup partnership in overcoming the current obstacles to peace and democracy in Turkey. The following measures are necessary to overcome polarization:

• Political culture should be built on mutual understanding and respect for differences. Policies based on the principles of equality and democracy should be adopted to strengthen trust across society.
• The media must act ethically, reaffirm its responsibility as society’s watchdog, and exercise greater care in the language it uses. Media organizations should be independent and impartial.
• The greatest responsibility lies with politicians, who are expected to act with common sense and refrain from rhetoric that fuels conflict. Likewise, polarization should not be exploited as a tool for political gain.
• The system of checks and balances should be strengthened to ensure a fair distribution of power within the state. Priority should be given to building institutional capacity based on equal and fair recruitment practices in public institutions.

The Kurdish issue has the potential to become a source of political and social instability in Türkiye unless the following points are addressed:

• The government should clearly distinguish between the political and armed wings of the Kurdish movement and the Kurdish people. This distinction is crucial for winning the trust and support of Kurdish citizens.
• Measures should be taken to ensure stronger representation of the Kurdish people so that Kurdish citizens themselves are directly consulted regarding their demands, needs, and interests.
• Violence should not be used by either the state or the PKK as a means of achieving political objectives. A mutual ceasefire should be declared, and all forms of physical, psychological, and cultural violence should be brought to an end.
• Peace and security are the most important prerequisites for the inclusive economic development of Southeastern Anatolia. The region’s natural resources, strategic location, and human capital should be fully taken into consideration in development policies.

The failed coup attempt of 15 July once again demonstrated the urgent need for institutional reform and capacity building within the state. In this regard:

• Confidence in the legal system should be restored, and regulations ensuring equal opportunity should be introduced to eliminate discrimination and inequality.
• Capacity building and institutional development will be the most important steps toward improving state institutions.
• Efforts to combat FETÖ should target only those who have committed crimes and whose links to the organization have been established through verifiable evidence. To protect individual dignity, innocent people should not be accused without compelling evidence.
• State institutions should be redefined and reformed in accordance with the principles of merit, the rule of law, and pluralism. Reform efforts should focus on comprehensive institutional changes rather than temporary individual initiatives.
• A new constitution should be drafted urgently to establish a broad-based institutional framework. The new constitution should serve as a social contract guaranteeing the universal human rights and freedoms set out in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the Copenhagen Criteria.

The coup attempt also demonstrated that the possibility of military intervention has not been entirely eliminated. Therefore, the study recommends the following:

• A solid balance should be established between civilian and military actors to ensure that the armed forces remain focused solely on protecting the country against national security threats.
• The recruitment and training of military personnel should be based on the principles of merit and the rule of law.
• To strengthen coordination between civilian and military authorities, the Armed Forces should regularly brief Parliament on their achievements, needs, strengths, and weaknesses.

The failed coup attempt of 15 July has become an issue with both national and international implications. Accordingly, the following points should be taken into account in shaping Türkiye’s foreign policy:

• Polarization harms foreign policy just as much as it harms domestic politics. Decision-makers should therefore avoid encouraging polarization in foreign policy, and foreign policy should not be instrumentalized for domestic political gain.
• Türkiye should regard the presence of Kurdish communities in the region not as an obstacle but as a valuable cultural connection. The existence of Kurdish communities should be viewed as an opportunity to strengthen cooperation while maintaining a balance between security and peace/democracy.
• Continuing the peace process could provide an opportunity to improve Türkiye’s damaged international image and repair relations with international actors. Such an initiative could also help overcome the deadlock in Türkiye’s Syria policy.
• A stronger culture of consultation and coordination should be developed among the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Turkish Armed Forces, the General Staff, the National Intelligence Organization (MIT), and the government. These institutions should also contribute to sharing the Ministry’s responsibilities in the formulation and implementation of foreign policy.

Conclusion

This report aims to outline the Post-Coup Conflict Resolution and Democracy Opportunities Project, which seeks to address the problems that emerged or deepened in Turkey after the July 15 coup attempt. Accordingly, the study aims to identify and analyze these problems, and to offer solutions that will contribute to policy-making processes and the consolidation of reconciliation and democracy in Turkey. The study argues that sustainable peace and stability in Turkey can only be achieved through an effective conflict resolution mechanism and a constructive approach to conflict resolution. The April 16 presidential referendum resulted in a narrow victory for the conservative-nationalist bloc. According to the timetable for constitutional amendments, the country has two years to transition to the new presidential system. The high percentage of "yes" votes in Kurdish-populated regions, compared to previous elections, is significant and can be considered a reflection of the political will to resolve the Kurdish issue within the framework of a new political system. This result is consistent with data obtained from Kurdish participants in the project, who stated that a presidential system could create opportunities for the continuation of negotiations. From this perspective, strong leadership can contribute to the effective management of the Solution Process.