The Post-Elections Turkey: What Lies Ahead?

Executive Summary

The 1 November 2015 general elections in Turkey marked a decisive political turning point, restoring the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) to single-party rule with a strong parliamentary majority. This outcome reflected public demand for stability following the political uncertainty, unsuccessful coalition attempts, and rising security concerns that emerged after the June 2015 elections. The results strengthened the AK Party’s position as a dominant political force and revived its vision of building a “New Turkey,” including discussions on a new constitution and a possible transition toward a presidential system. However, the central question remains whether the government will pursue an inclusive and democratic governance model or move toward a more centralized and hegemonic form of rule.

Turkey’s domestic political developments are closely connected to its regional and global role. Facing multiple crises, including the Syrian civil war, the refugee crisis, and the threat posed by ISIL, Turkey has become a key actor in efforts to maintain regional stability. Hosting millions of Syrian refugees, Turkey also serves as a strategic partner for both the European Union and NATO. Nevertheless, challenges such as failed states in its surrounding region, regional power competition, and shortcomings in global governance continue to constrain Turkey’s ability to act.

The study emphasizes that Turkey’s ability to maintain its position as a rising power depends on ensuring domestic stability, revitalizing democratic processes, particularly the Kurdish peace initiative, strengthening economic performance, and deepening international cooperation, especially with the European Union.