Turkey's 2015 Elections: A New Beginning for Turkey's European Union Accession Goal, or the End of a Dream?

Executive Summary

The June 7, 2015 Turkish general elections marked a significant turning point in the country’s political landscape, as the Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002, while opposition parties—particularly the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP)—made significant gains. The outcome was widely interpreted as a response to increasing authoritarian tendencies, political polarization, and democratic backsliding in Turkey, especially after 2011. The results also temporarily halted President Erdoğan’s ambitions to introduce a presidential system.

The new political balance created both opportunities and risks for Turkey–European Union (EU) relations. A more pluralistic political environment could contribute to the revival of democratization efforts and strengthen prospects for EU accession. However, potential coalition scenarios, particularly those involving nationalist parties such as the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), could further distance Turkey from EU norms and standards.

Ultimately, the future of Turkey’s EU accession process depends on whether the country can reverse recent authoritarian trends, restore democratic institutions, strengthen the rule of law, and demonstrate renewed political commitment to comprehensive reforms.