Turkey’s Decarbonization Roadmap Toward Net Zero by 2053 (Executive Summary)

Turkey's Decarbonization Roadmap, prepared by the Sabancı University Istanbul Policy Center (IPC), analyzes the country's 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and long-term mitigation strategies toward the 2053 net-zero target by modeling them at the sectoral level. Utilizing a "bottom-up" approach through the LEAP and EP-SIM models, the study reveals the upward trend in emissions under the "Reference Scenario" if current policies continue, and the emission reduction pathway under the "Net Zero Scenario" through measures such as transition to renewable energy, gradual phase-out of coal, and energy efficiency.

Modeling results indicate that the Net Zero Scenario achieves a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 and a 60% reduction by 2053 compared to 2021 levels. It is projected that this ambitious transformation process will entail an additional investment cost of approximately 265 billion USD between 2025 and 2035, and that cumulative emissions will remain within a carbon budget framework compatible with the goal of limiting global temperature increase to 1.7°C.

Introduction

Turkey became a party to the Paris Agreement in 2021 and announced its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2053. However, the target set in the updated National Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2022 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 41% by 2030 compared to the reference scenario is not consistent with this long-term goal. Under the Paris Agreement, countries must update their contributions to climate action and reduction targets every five years, and in accordance with this rule, Turkey, along with other countries, will submit its new NDC to the UN this year (2025).