Turkish Foreign Policy after the Elections: Where to from Here?

Executive Summary

The June 7, 2015 general elections in Turkey marked a significant political turning point, as the Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in thirteen years, while the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) entered Parliament with 13 percent of the vote. These results raised questions regarding potential changes in Turkey’s foreign policy direction, particularly in light of criticism toward the AKP’s recent regional approach, ideological engagements in the Middle East and North Africa, deteriorating relations with key actors such as Israel and Egypt, and the decline of Turkey’s soft power due to democratic backsliding.

The elections also demonstrated the domestic impact of foreign policy choices, especially through the Kobane crisis, which contributed to a significant shift among Kurdish voters from the AKP to the HDP. Future foreign policy developments will largely depend on the nature of coalition formation.

An AKP-CHP coalition could encourage a more pragmatic and balanced foreign policy approach, improve relations with Western partners, and help sustain the domestic peace process. In contrast, an AKP-MHP coalition could strengthen nationalist and Eurosceptic tendencies, undermine regional relations, and increase the likelihood of military interventions in Syria, potentially reinforcing President Erdoğan’s efforts to introduce a presidential system.

The post-election period therefore presents both risks and opportunities for the rationalization and reorientation of Turkish foreign policy.