Unveiling the Just Transition: Policy Implications and Descriptive Data Insights for Coal Miners in Turkey

In this May 2024 IPC–Mercator analysis, Sinem Ayhan and Coşku Çelik examine what a coal phaseout would mean for a “just transition” in Türkiye by focusing on miners’ welfare risks, using administrative EIS data (2012–2021) and field evidence from Soma: although coal mining employment fell from about 44,000 (2012) to roughly 34,000 (2021), the social and political difficulty of exiting coal stems from weak economic diversification in coal regions and the sector’s comparatively strong wages and social insurance. The study finds coal-mining wages substantially exceed those available elsewhere—average wages outside coal are about 60% of miners’ earnings—and that miners displaced by mass layoffs experience sizable losses, with unconditional mean real monthly wages about 34% lower than those of continuously employed miners. It also shows common post-coal pathways (around one-fifth moving into construction within a year and roughly 28% exiting the labor market), while noting limitations in tracking informal work (with agriculture a plausible alternative), and highlights strong regional variation (e.g., Soma versus Zonguldak) and heightened vulnerability among middle-aged workers—together implying that effective just-transition policy in Türkiye will require tailored packages combining income support, early-retirement options where feasible, and reskilling/placement programs designed at the subregional and group level.

Concluding Remarks 

The transition away from coal underscores the need for a just transition, particularly in mitigating socio-economic impacts on workers and communities. While the just transition concept spans various sectors and stakeholders, the present discussion concentrates on the challenges facing coal miners in Türkiye, who are among the first to be impacted by a potential coal phaseout.